Scenario of Slovakia’s foreign policy after the 2023 elections – SFPA perspective

Prior to the parliamentary elections in September 2023, Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA) published three potential post-election scenarios.

The first, titled Reliable Team Member, anticipated continuity in foreign policy, security, and European affairs. The second scenario, Solitary Isolation, could be considered the opposite, predicting a direct threat to the continuity of Slovakia’s foreign policy and security prospects. The third scenario, An Unpredictable Player, incorporated selected elements from both previous scenarios.

Following the September 2023 election results, Prime Minister Robert Fico formed a government consisting of the Smer – Slovak Social Democracy, Hlas – Social Democracy, and the Slovak National Party. On November 13, the government published its Manifesto for the years 2023–2027, that is considered a fundamental document guiding the government’s actions over the next four years. SFPA researchers analyzed selected parts of the government’s program statement focusing on foreign, security, and energy policies, and cross-referenced them with theses outlined in the three post-election scenarios. A comprehensive analysis of selected parts of the government’s pro- gram statement revealed the greatest alignment with Scenario No. 3 — An unpredictable player.